Enderronian federal election, 2002

A federal election was held in Enderron on Saturday 19 October 2002 to elect the 150 members of the 15th Enderronian Parliament.

The result was a hung parliament, the first since 1986. The incumbent third-term Social Democratic Party government, led by Prime Minister Rick Clarkson, suffered a loss of 19 seats and a 5.13 percent swing on two-party-preferred terms against the newly amalgamated Liberal Party of Enderron, led by Wally Koepke and formed by the merger between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats. The Enderron National Party ended up being the kingmaker, with neither the SDP nor Liberals mathematically being able to govern without the support of the party. After one week of negotiations, the National Party agreed to form a coalition with the Liberal Party, with leader Jack Whitham becoming Deputy Prime Minister. Thus, this election marked the end of the 12-year Vandenberg–Clarkson Social Democratic Government.

In the months leading up to the election, the Social Democrats held a narrow but steady lead in opinion polling, and the election result was expected to be a slim majority government for the party. In the final weeks of the election campaign, the poll results tightened and most analysts predicted a hung parliament, which proved to be the case in the final result. The Liberals managed to edge out a one-seat plurality, winning 70 seats to the Social Democrats' 69. With neither party winning a majority, both turned to the agrarian National Party for negotiations. The Liberals initially refused to serve in a coalition, insisting on leading a minority government with confidence and supply from the Nationals, but relented after the Nationals threatened to force a snap election to break the deadlock. It was the first such coalition government since 1986 and only the third in Enderronian history (excluding the wartime coalition governments of 1914–1916 and 1940–1945).

Results
Independents: Jack Berg, Geoff Martin

Seats changing hands

 * Kingston, NP, was won by Alexander Tam of the Social Democrats at the previous election, but he resigned in 1999 and was succeeded by Harry White at the ensuing by-election. The margin listed above is the by-election margin.

Analysis of results
The election result was a hung parliament for the first time since 1986, which coincidentally was also the last time a conservative government came to power.

The Liberals gained many seats in areas previously considered relatively strong for the Social Democrats, especially in urban areas. The party won a majority of seats in Wentworth and New Plymouth for the first time since 1962 and 1966 respectively. The Liberals also made significant inroads into Eastern Enderron, and won a seat in New Colorado for the first time since 1986.

Previous election
The Social Democratic Party, which had governed Enderron since 1990, was re-elected with a convincing majority at the 1998 federal election against the Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats, which had formed an electoral alliance in 1997.

Parliamentary term
Having been defeated in a landslide at two consecutive elections, the Conservatives under leader Wally Koepke rallied for a full merger with the smaller Liberal Democrats to avoid further cannibalising the centre-right vote, and to counter the impact of the far-right Enderron Democrats. This merger eventually occurred in February 2000, with the two parties amalgamating to become the Liberal Party of Enderron.

The Social Democrats enjoyed a significant honeymoon period following their re-election, but support steadily decreased throughout 1999 and the party's lead had all but evaporated by April 2000, thanks to dissatisfaction with government's economic reform program and increasing petrol prices. The SDP experienced mixed results at a series of by-elections in 1999, winning the seat of Taiping back from the opposition Conservatives, but losing Rockingham South to a left-wing independent and suffering negative swings in Kingston and Denison. Clarkson's attempts at introducing a goods and services tax (GST) and a tax hike for wealthier Enderronians were particularly unpopular. The Liberal Party took a small lead in the polls and largely retained such a lead until late 2001, when public opinion swung back towards the Social Democrats following the September 11 attacks and Enderron's entry into the War in Afghanistan.

Redistributions
The Enderronian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new Parliament, to determine the number of members to which each prefecture is entitled. If the number in any prefecture changes, a redistribution will be required in those prefectures.

The Clarkson Government legislated an increase in the Parliament by 25 seats, from 125 to 150 seats, which came into effect at the 2002 election. Demographic statistics for December 2000 released by Statistics Enderron were used to calculate the determination.